I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, July 30, 2010


Here is the type of chart that I hate to show. One that has a bunch of different options on it. Frankly, looking at charts like this makes me want to puke. I find it far more distracting than either helpful or enlightening. I have stated before that I like to consider all the options behind the scenes and to present my preferred count, the one that I think is most likely and the one that I am trading.

But like I stated a week ago Ding-Dong, I no longer have a preferred count at the moment. The counts are sufficiently ambiguous to be inscrutable. Anybody who says they "know" what is going on here is smoking something (and if so, may I have the prescription?) or they are full of "it".

So, like I said, it pays to take a step back, not get too caught up in the squiggles, look at momentum and divergences and to look at the leading macroeconomic indicators to see what the intermediate term holds in store. The short term is an unreadable mess, but I think the intermediate term is down, as I reiterated on Tuesday Snack Shack.

I am short, and despite what the short term tape throws at us, I think the intermediate term direction is down. This is my story and I'm sticking to it :)

Anyways, here is the aforementioned chart mess. Lots of options. You like any one of these (or the more bullish options)? Pick one and roll the dice!

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