I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Snack Shack

Still bearish, still short, still tired of the tape.

I still think the market is in the process of topping. Is it a H&S setup still in the works? I don't know, and I don't much care. The daily and weekly indicators are rolling over, we still have valid death crosses (the price can move back above as a reaction, but that signal has been sent and it can't be unsent) and a number bearish macro leading indicators (ECRI for example).

I still believe we are topping.

Move since the beginning of July does not read like an overall impulse. It reads like a 3 wave move. If this count is correct, then the target would be ~62% retrace for nearly all of the 6 charts shown above.

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