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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Modified Theory

I have been looking for the "same" count on the major indices, but if I relax my criteria and look for counts that are approximately the same and combine that with some price movement observations, then I think I have a more nuanced / complete picture for Minor 1:

First is the Russell. It sold off by far the hardest. And the waves are *very* clean impulses down, each one making clear lower lows. Nothing ambiguous about this count. And it also bottomed before the rest of the indices (Hardest sell-off is the fastest to bottom).

Next is the SPX. The waves are not quite as clean as they are on the Russell. Finanicals comprise a large portion of the SPX and Finanicals TANKED last week. So it is a hybrid between clean counts and muddy counts. The SPX bottomed next

The Dow, Wilshire, and NYSE are all somewhere between the SPX and the Nasdaq in count "muddiness".

Last is the Nasdaq Composite and 100. Both the COMPQ and NDX had the most overlap and it sold off the least (the wave structure is far more "sideways" than the Russell's clean down moves). And it did not finish it's down move until today (Weakest sell-off takes longer to bottom).

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