I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, January 27, 2010


So here is the deal, we have some conflicting information from the counts on the different indices. I have my preferred count and leading alternate (discussion last night with bob_johnston describes both pros and cons to both counts: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/weetabix.html#comment-31471031)

I have the preferred and alternate on the SPX, and the RUT count to support the preferred and the NDX/COMPQ count to support the alternate.

So we *could* be at the bottom of this wave, or we might have another Minute 5 down. I am lightening up some more on shorts this morning based on further deterioration of the risk/reward profile at this price and stage in the count. But I will leave a little on the table to capture the move down if it comes. Again, this is just how I see the trade, this is *NOT* advice to anybody else

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