I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Update on Short Term Gold Count

Refer to my last large update on Gold here: binve's Gold Foil Hat Zone: More Thoughts on Gold's Massive Bull Market, and in particular, here is my update to this chart.

From my last chart I was targeting 1230 as an inverse H&S target which we basically reached and then moving up to ~1300-1350 to the upper channel line before putting in another correction.

How much will gold correct? Again, I think quite honestly gold is in a massive bull market. This war is about the confidence in sovereign debt and the integrity of fiat currencies. It is about real money vs. fiat money. Nothing in this crisis has made the Dollar any stronger fundamentally. So the Euro vs. the Dollar, while interesting, is a sideshow. Gold is at or near all time highs in nearly every major fiat currency. So the correction may not be that dramatic. Wave 2 pullbacks within extensions (and my position is that gold is in a massive Wave 3 extension right now that started since 2000) are usually only 38%. Not advice. But I also bought gold at much cheaper prices so I can afford to be patient and pick up oversold entries whenever they occur.

May 14, adding Gold/Equity Correlation chart

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