I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, May 7, 2010

Question the Answers

Lots of questions right now:

Has P3 started? I lean heavily toward "Yes", so does the VIX: Impressive VIX

Is the current wave down we are in over? That's the easy one.... NO

What degree is the current wave down? That is very tough. From this projection: Reviewing the Larger Count, I have a target of the support zone of 900-950 for Intermediate 1 of P3. So if this current wave form ends around 1070 or so in the next couple of weeks, it might only be Minor 1 of Int 1 of P3

.... now that is a serious scenario to ponder. P3 will be a lot about "breaking the broken system", and if HFT driven volatility becomes the norm we have some tough times ahead.

Timing short term bounces can be deadly in that type of a market. I will be looking for swing trades and give myself some more margin than I otherwise would. Moves can travel past your positions before resuming violently down.

.... I wish I had "Kinder Words" for you ... (yuk yuk)

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