Like I was observing yesterday in Sloppy Joe:
Here is what I think. And the more I look at it, the more I like Alphahorn's Leading diagonal idea: Monday midday update, updated for the close.
I still like that count a lot. It could be a giant 1-2, 1-2. But there is something about that count that doesn't feel right. Not yet. I think alpha was right on with the call. The LD is an impulsive count that doesn't look very impulsive. So it doesn't put fear into the hearts of the bulls. Plus LD's typically have a large retrace of 62-78%. This will act like a huge sentiment "reset", and will give a lot of fuel of Int 3 of P3 down when Int 2 runs it course in terms of decreasing volatility and providing another nice top to short.
But there is another strong reason why I favor the LD scenario. I was making this observation yesterday too:
Also, I did an extensive study of Wave 1's and 2's within P1: see O Mandelbrot, O Mandelbrot. And Minor 1 of Int 1 of P1 was a leading diagonal. In fact, there is quite a lot of similarity to the pattern. See this chart: M1 of I1 of P1
Here is the chart of mine that I was linking to. If you look at the wave yesterday and today and compare it to the other 4, the resemblance is uncanny. In fact the whole structure is very uncanny. The one in 2007 was a Minor degree wave and I think this one is an Intermediate Wave, but there is a lot to like and to think about with this comparison:
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1 year ago