I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Slightly Less Boring Title #2

When I am less busy, I will return to coming up with funny (or at least not dull) titles. :(

Yesterday, here was my projection for a move down to 1160 from this post: Slightly Less Boring Title #1. We got the move to within 2 points of the 5th wave termination estimate (which is very reliable when you are in fact dealing with impulse waves. When these projections don't work, you shouldn't question the projection, you should question the assumption you are making that the wave you are counting is an impulse wave). The timing and relative size of wave 4 was also a pretty good estimate.

Here is the update. This is my current preferred count:

And the associated micro count:

AussieKen also put forth the interesting idea that this larger waveform could a leading diagonal at the Minute degree. I like the idea and find the impulsive, without clear extension, waveforms to be a good fit for that theory. Here is a possible take:

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