I would be more than happy, ecstatic in fact, if last week marked the top of P2. And if the move this next week and especially the week after that develop *decisively* downward impulsively, then I think we have the makings for a major trend change (which would make this bear **very** happy). This is the option that I am showing here: Boring Title #8
But this fine (but unfortunately busy :( ) Saturday morning I am reviewing the larger count structure. I had proposed this count last month: Update on My P2 Projection. I was drifting away from it since this "wave from hell" took us nearly to the 62% retrace, I really thought that this could be the top of P2 (and like I mention above it could)
... But it also could not. Lots of "Sell in May and go away" talk seems to coincide with the wave ending, so this is a compelling spot for a top. but it just seems too obvious now. Too many people are expecting it, so my Spider-sense is unfortunately tingling (that, or I need to switch to Selsun Blue)
So what am I getting at? Another 3 months of sideways churning before the real top.
First chart -- Here is my big picture projection that I showed last month and the month before, updated with the recent price action, so that you understand where I am coming from.
Next is my P2 focus count. Please read the notes on the chart, they are very important. Namely, that when I honestly assess the wave, there has not been enough variation within it to qualify as 3 Minor waves. I think it was 3 Minute waves within 1 Minor wave.
Third Chart - This is my *highly speculative* projection as to how these next 3 months could play out. I am not looking for criticism on this count, just showing a possible way how this trainwreck could move sideways still within the context of P2. How will it actually unfold? Who the f*** knows.
Just offering this up as food for thought.
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2 years ago