I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Reviewing the Larger Count

I would be more than happy, ecstatic in fact, if last week marked the top of P2. And if the move this next week and especially the week after that develop *decisively* downward impulsively, then I think we have the makings for a major trend change (which would make this bear **very** happy). This is the option that I am showing here: Boring Title #8

But this fine (but unfortunately busy :( ) Saturday morning I am reviewing the larger count structure. I had proposed this count last month: Update on My P2 Projection. I was drifting away from it since this "wave from hell" took us nearly to the 62% retrace, I really thought that this could be the top of P2 (and like I mention above it could)

... But it also could not. Lots of "Sell in May and go away" talk seems to coincide with the wave ending, so this is a compelling spot for a top. but it just seems too obvious now. Too many people are expecting it, so my Spider-sense is unfortunately tingling (that, or I need to switch to Selsun Blue)

So what am I getting at? Another 3 months of sideways churning before the real top.

First chart -- Here is my big picture projection that I showed last month and the month before, updated with the recent price action, so that you understand where I am coming from.

Next is my P2 focus count. Please read the notes on the chart, they are very important. Namely, that when I honestly assess the wave, there has not been enough variation within it to qualify as 3 Minor waves. I think it was 3 Minute waves within 1 Minor wave.

Third Chart - This is my *highly speculative* projection as to how these next 3 months could play out. I am not looking for criticism on this count, just showing a possible way how this trainwreck could move sideways still within the context of P2. How will it actually unfold? Who the f*** knows.

Just offering this up as food for thought.
blog comments powered by Disqus