I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

There is a Reason You Don't Take Hot Air Balloons Up 3 Miles

It's not that they can't fly that high (they can. And *much* higher), it is because the passengers start freezing and getting hypoxia that far up (just ask the unfortunate Italian balloonists who discovered this in the early 1800s). And this rally would have gladly continued up on Wall Streets hot air, but some investors started passing out in the rarefied air of 1020 on the SPX.

The market looks finally ready to take a breather before the next burst of hot air.

Here is my current micro count. It is basically Daneric's count from a few days ago. I think the triangle still works because the move down from 1020 as the E leg looks like an double zigzag so far. Notice the note about the Fed Meeting. I think the market is "expecting", uhh """"good news"""" (I had to quadruple quote that one) :)

Either way, the old Rock'em Sock'em Robots have successfully beat down several trend lines :)

Here is my Trading Chart / Near Term Projection for how Wave B *could* play out

The SPX is not only out of the channel now, but has now closed below several important 30 minute MAs that have served as support all through the rally from 869.

NDX still looks very anemic, closing below lots of channels with failed retests, and *not* making new highs after Aug 4.

Here is a count of XLF. I am just showing because Wave 4 (orange) looks ready to bottom tomorrow. Refer to my Fed comment above. I think Financials will get the biggest boost out of whatever announcement comes tomorrow.

Dollar is still rallying. I think equities will generally trade lower the next 3 weeks as the Dollar trades up.

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