I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, August 17, 2009

Current Count

On Friday, I went back to my count from Thursday Morning: Some More Wave A Thoughts. I was also looking at slower indicators on Friday (the hourly and daily) in A Look at Some Indicators and SPY Price and Volume.

The reason why I still like this count:

1. NDX and COMPQ (the "leaders") made new highs on Aug 12. This (IMO) is the true end of Wave A
2. The overshoot on the SPX on the 7th was unconfirmed by NDX and COMPQ. I believe this is a B wave within Wave 4 (which are typically unconfirmed), driven mostly by finanicals
3. The hourly and daily indicators are rolling over in topping action. Now this can be a fakeout. They can "roll over" and simply consolidate. But the daily chart has some strong trend changes and negative divergences. I think we are correcting (probably only slightly) for a bit.

blog comments powered by Disqus