I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, August 14, 2009

SPY Price and Volume

The wave counts are very ambiguous right now. Daneric has two viable options, each very different, with Wave A ended and in B, and another with A and B ended and now in Wave C. This is has not been an easy or obvious count.

So like my post this morning (A Look at Some Indicators), I am going to go back to some indicators. This time I am looking at price and volume for the SPY (as the intraday volume proxy for $SPX).

They are not telling us anything obvious in terms of forecasting. But the 30 min chart shows the places where there is significant price / volume action. I tend to think of it like energy levels. The rally spent so much energy getting to the top, that it seems like it needs to pullback and rest at the previous energy level before making another strong move up.

The 60 min chart (longer term) tells a similar story. Not only is the air rarefied up here, to draw on the earlier pun from this post: There is a Reason You Don't Take Hot Air Balloons Up 3 Miles, but there is a much weaker price/vol band, and I would think it needs to consolidate at a stronger band just slightly below.

Coupled with the indicators from this mornings post, I still think we are topping right now.

...... But many of us were saying the same thing in early May. This market just loves to surprise people. Especially the bears :)

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