I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


I still maintain (like I have for weeks) that this down move is a correction, not an impulse. The count at the larger degree is also a correction, not an impulse (see my last post).

Addition 5:05

Projection by request.

I really have no idea how this will play out (corrective waves are difficult to predict by definition), but if I had to guess, I would guess something like this. I highly disagree with the impulsive wave count at the Intermediate degree (the 5-3-5 P2 count). I think it is ridiculous. I think the Secular Bull Count (Impulse up from March 2009 low) is even more ridiculous. I think ultimately this will just be 'a' top that heralds a pullback (not a crash, but also more severe than a 'dip') before heading to higher highs in an ongoing cyclical bull market (which is ultimately an upward correction in an ongoing secular bear market).

See my summary here: Real Secular Bear Markets

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