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Friday, March 18, 2011

Correction in the Larger Context

I have been showing a corrective upward count since the July low. And I have been showing my version of the count where the rally ended a few weeks ago and we have a bigger downward correction in store: Correction.

However, this idea is a little bit in opposition to another count that I have been showing, where this rally wants to peak in June. See the chart at the end of this post: Macro Thoughts and Observations. Is the Bear Market Dead? Is this the Start of a new Secular Bull Market?. The reason I was reconsidering that count is because the rally continued past with almost no correction and almost reached my target.

... But, the price target was not met (almost but not quite). And I think it will before this leg of the rally is done. And I still think my Fibonacci time target is still a good guess as to the end.

So with that, here are my thoughts.

This is my rally count that would support a new high being reached around June. The most important (and confusing) question is: what degree is the November correction? It just seems out of proportion as a Minor degree wave. I know that is how I was counting it before... but it never sat right with me. So right now I am showing my version of the count that has it as a Minute degree count and the recent correction is the Minor degree correction in the current rally.

I still maintain that the overall count is corrective, not impulsive. I know there is overwhelming majority in the EW community that wants to call the July-present wave an impulse, but I disagree with it quite strongly. I think the internals during the middle of the wave is abysmal (nothing like a 3) and the waves are clearly overlapping where 3rd wave extensions should be.

Here is how the above count fits in my larger count. I think the 78.6% retrace level (~1370) and the 1.618 time extension is the magnet for this rally.

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