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Wednesday, June 30, 2010


There is a lot of talk / speculation about a bounce here. "Everybody is bearish, including CNBC. The market loves to fake people out. Since a breakdown is expected, there is no way it will do that".

Quite frankly, I hear a lot more talk like that above instead of people calling for the breakdown. I think people are trying to get too cute calling everybody else a contrarian indicator.

I think the simple fact is: this move is real.

We have acceleration down, increased breadth down, increased volume, increased distribution. For crying out loud the daily indicators aren't even oversold yet!!!. I think the macro and fundamental situation is deteriorating precipitously, and I think for the first time in the last year and a half the macro and the technicals are finally coming back together (and I think this is a very bearish combination).

I don't know the future, you don't know the future. I think you are a contrarian indicator, you think I am a contrarian indicator. But I think odds and the risk/reward (and that's all I can play) favors a mini-crash here. I have no interest in getting cute with this wave a trying to time a bottom. I think we have a few weeks of some pretty sharp selling off ahead of us.

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