I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Another Look at "Always Another Option"

I was looking at this option a few days ago: Always Another Option, and then I mentioned it again here: A Look at the Waves, Discussion of Options and Diagonals, and a Review of the Big Picture.

I still favor the Leading Diagonal, but the fact that this count looks odd (but is completely viable) and is also a dark horse count (very few people are talking about it, except of course my friend Kevin) really has me thinking twice about it. But my conversation yesterday and today with joske (http://marketthoughtsandanalysis... read all 4 comments) really has me thinking about it again.

-- In the 1-2, 1-2 count, we should have already been breaking down hard

-- For the LD count, things are pretty much still on track

But here is where this count comes in. *If* (this is not my preferred count, this is a "just in case" count at this point) we break above the upper trendline on the LD on this wave without making a new low, I feel the LD count will be invalid (or else severely truncated, which I don't buy). So in that case everybody jumps bullish. But this count suggests that it would be a bull trap of epic proportions.

... Mr. Market sure is being quite devious at this juncture.

blog comments powered by Disqus