I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Nice Surprise

Nice gap down this morning. Right on to support. But what's the count? As an impulse, the count stinks, but here is my interpretation. It could also be a double zigzag (this count is a lot more compelling).

But like oneofdaworst and I were discussing, I am not getting too caught up in these Minute degree waves. If we break above 1110 on strength I may hedge long with some dry powder. But I am not giving up or covering my core short positions. I think the primary trend is back to down, and I am not giving that position up. I have no desire to get cute with this. The macro situation is deteriorating precipitously which means that all the major surprises will be to the downside.

Therefore, no matter what the Minute degree waves are saying (and there will be many volatile fakeouts, or did the last 2 weeks not convince you of that) I will be net short for awhile (at least until Int 1). When we get down to the 950 area to some real support (1040 is just a way-stop) then I will re-evaluate.

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