I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

May 2

Here is a chart looking at the structure of the last two major bull waves up. I don't think there is one-to-one correspondence, but I do think there are some analogous features.

I do think we have another wave up to make a clear higher high. Personally I don't think we are at Dec 2010, but more like Mar 2011 from an analogy standpoint. This theory would tend to fit with what my Daily Trend System is telling me. It is expecting a higher high, but as things stand now the next peak will likely happen on a divergence between price and my main indicator. This is something I am expecting as 18 out of 20 past Daily Cycles with a similar configuration have done.

So I tend to think we are getting near the top of this wave, but we aren't there yet. Also, as my previous analysis shows, I still don't think this wave will be 'the' top: Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective
blog comments powered by Disqus