I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Sunday, May 6, 2012

May 6

I received several comments on my last post. Several were well-meaning. One was not. But I think all missed the point of the post.

I wrote that my 60-min Trend System issued an emergency sell signal, and that the sell signal was not the result of a normal exit criteria. There are several conflicting signal indicators happening at once on my 60-min system. We also have a lot of sharp reversals happening at range boundaries (like in a large triangle) that make it extremely difficult to interpret what is happening in the short term.

And that was the simple point of the post: The short term is proving very difficult to predict based on the plethora of conflicting signals.

It was suggested that I needed to take a step back and take a look at the bigger picture. While well-meaning, this misses the point. I frequently take a step back and look at the bigger picture. In fact, I had two posts in the last 3 weeks that did precisely that: Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective and May 2.

The point is that I was properly and publicly bearish in May 2011, bullish in Oct 2011, and I stated that we are getting close to a top but not yet at a top here. And that further I don't think that this coming top will be 'the' top of the cyclical bull market.

But absolutely none of this has anything to do with Friday's post which was a comment on the 60-minute Trend System and the short term timeframe.

Anybody who has been following my work knows that I think and discuss market behavior in several different timeframes and that I try to illuminate when people improperly try to think of the distinct time cycles (60-min, Daily, Weekly, etc.) as happening all at once. This almost never happens in real life. We often have, for example, a 60-min cycle in a down trend with a Daily Cycle in an uptrend, with a Weekly Cycle in a downtrend, etc. My baseline position is that we are currently in a cyclical bull market in the middle of a larger secular bear market.

So while I appreciate the general advice that stepping back to look at the bigger picture is useful, I think it is also unwarranted.

Regarding two specific points:

1) Several Weekly Indicators are rolling over.

Very much agreed that they are. But I disagree that this means a top is 'imminent', I think it only means a top is near. That was the point of this post: May 2. The lower PPO (orange) on the daily chart is slowed down, which makes it behave like a weekly indicator. It has not really gone into divergence yet, which it did at both the 2010 and 2011 tops.

In short, I think trying to call a top right here is rushing to judgement. Just my opinion.

2) That I have finally gone 'bullish' at the end of this wave.

This a fairly ridiculous comment and shows that this commenter doesn't really read my work. I have called that last two major waves in real-time (as documented here: Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective) and have been bullish since October.

But the aspect of this comment that I would like to address in my 60-minute system. My 60-minute system performed spectacularly last year: Jan 2. But this year has been dismal. It is 0 for 10. And specifically it was trying to catch roll-over tops that never occurred, and the last signal was a sub-cycle long which was confirmed by a 60-min Up Cycle signal that as of Friday looks like it will be a failure.

So this commenter says incorrectly that I am now 'being bullish' (which I have been since Oct 2011) when they are likely confusing the performance of my Trend System which is dispassionate and has nothing to do with my independent analysis. However, I am owning up to the fact that my 60-min Trend System has been badly faked out this year.
blog comments powered by Disqus