I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, December 5, 2011

Dec 5

My 60-min Trend System went short today (as did I). Yet despite that, I think December will end up being a very bullish month.

BUT! The SPX failed at the 200 day MA ... again!

Yeah, so?

It made a clear higher low since the last test confirming the divergence seen in October. I think the current pullback is just a move to relieve the short term overbought conditions (at a level that will invite over-bearish prognostications, i.e. the 200 DMA). I actually see some very bullish developments happening with my Daily Trend System. But there needs to be some more confirmation first, more on those as they develop.

This is what I would expect to see if the more bullish scenario is going to play out.

In the meantime, just trading the signals from my 60-min system.
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