I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, December 30, 2011

Dec 30

My 60-min Trend System issued a sell signal. See here and here. (These updates are sent out as part of my Trend System Notifications).

This was not a clean-cut call, and at best it could be called an 'early' sell signal. We had none of the markers that I look for at sub-cycle tops, especially given the setup that I discussed here. So honestly I still think this wave could continue up in early January.

But what happened today:
1) 15-minute sell signal (again, like the one on Wednesday)
2) 60-minute main indicator rolled over. It is unconfirmed by other indicators on my system, but I am going to listen to it right now.
3) Last trading day of the year and the long weekend before the next trading day.

So I am just choosing to heed my system 'warnings' (not official sells) and walk away until next week. I am fully prepared to buy again if my main indicator turns back around. And if Tuesday ends up being a large gap up, then so be it. I would have liked this week to end on strength in order to hold over the long weekend, but that doesn't look like its going to happen. So it is wait and see mode for me.

Happy New Year Everyone!
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