I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Dec 28

Not a fun day to be long in the market (which I was and still am).

My 60-min system did not officially give a sell signal. The top occurred with no divergence. The setup that I mentioned on Friday is still valid. So I am staying long (perhaps foolishly, we will see). A few reasons for staying long despite the mini-bloodbath today:

1) Top occurred with no divergence on my 60-min system. There was divergence at the top on my 15-minute system. There was also divergence with the low today. We will see how that manifests tomorrow morning.

2) This was a very interesting statistic from 'Trading the Odds': http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2011/12/high-number-of-52-week-highs-in-december/. We also needed a correction for the rally (likely brought on by end of the year tax selling into this rally), but I am still looking for more upside based on my own system and statistics as well.

3) In a very un-quantifiable / un-analytic fashion today didn't feel like the start of a major correction, more like a reaction. Now, the market could spit in my fact tomorrow and say 'I tried to warn you'. And if that happens then so be it. But my gut says to stay long, so I am going to see where this goes.
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