I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Nov 9

Did the SPX consolidate above the 200 day MA? Nope.
Did the support level that it established yesterday hold? Nope.

Chop, chop, chop. This is was a nasty one since the gap down this morning went against the long signal from yesterday. Sell long signal was given at the open, see here, for a 1.8% loss. Not fun.

My 60-min Trend System then issued a short signal today. My main indicator continued to roll over all day long and issued a short at 1:50. See here and here. (These updates are sent out as part of my Trend System Notifications).

.... chop, chop, chop .....

Looking at the levels again (which didn't work out so well yesterday) it seems like the market is still working on a range. The failure yesterday confirmed the top part of the range, and I think the bottom was established a few weeks ago. I think that this move will likely revisit the bottom of the range.

In fact, this is eerily reminding me of Silly Season 2009 (recall the Dubai world 'default' that November with a similar parallel here on Italian bond fears).

So if that parallel were to follow, then we are establishing a large range for silly season, and basically the market moves will be inscrutable and range bound for the next few weeks. We'll see how that plays out.

EW count for anybody who cares.

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