I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, November 21, 2011

Nov 21 afternoon

Looking back at Thursday's and Friday's posts, I outlined a potential retracement scenario.

It is worth noting that the low today met several targets on the SPX:

- Upper Support established in September
- A = C since the October high
- 50% retrace of the October rally

It also looks very proportionate when compared to the March 2011 pullback.

My main 60-min indicator hasn't bottomed yet, but it is starting to slow. Could this be the start of a tradeable bottom? I don't know yet, I have no dog in the race (I am neutral at the moment, see the post from a couple of hours ago). But if it continues in this bottoming fashion tomorrow (and continues to turn my main indicator), then I will consider it more strongly.

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