And The ES So Far ...

.... is certainly acting like this is a real breakdown. The rally channel in the last C of Y leg is broken. However it is still sitting above some longer term trend lines that should be support. Tomorrow will tell if the reaction to the Fed announcement is simply part of a Wave 4 or if this is the beginning of a breakdown that should have some *very* strong legs.

Tequila

Addition 4:55 - Or we might just break down right here :)


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Do a shot when we get to the 50 day MA!
Do a shot when we get to 62% retrace of Minor 1!

What do we have? Drunk bulls and the bears are saying "You don't have to go home but you can't stay here".

From earlier today (Count):

Few options still in play. I think they point to a slightly higher move coming (It doesn't really matter to me though. Like I was saying a couple of days ago, I am short and whatever volatility the end of OPEX was going to offer, I liked the risk/reward for staying short here).

Check. We did get the higher move. Check. Yep I am still short.

I am expecting a peak of some sort tomorrow. Followed by a strong move down on Monday. If that doesn't materialize then I will reconsider my position. But I still do not mind being short here based on the low volume and lackluster internals of this rally.




Here is how this move might materialize on the E-Mini



Kissing the 50 day MA. I expect tomorrow we will move above it briefly, but I would be very surprised by a strong close above it.

Count

Yeah, so what. That title sucks. Whatcha gonna do about it? ... :)

Few options still in play. I think they point to a slightly higher move coming (It doesn't really matter to me though. Like I was saying a couple of days ago, I am short and whatever volatility the end of OPEX was going to offer, I liked the risk/reward for staying short here).

I am showing my preferred and the alternate that I was discussing with Todd of Elliott Wave Principle: Stock Market and Forex Analysis here: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/pee-wars.html#comment-35033329

Also joske has a very interesting take on the whole C wave as an ending diagonal http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/pee-wars.html#comment-35028050

Pee Wars

... unless you are in the CIL, don't ask :)

Grand (Wave Principle) - Correctly called the triangle about 20 minutes ago, and I think that is exactly what we are in.

I am short and will stay that way even with another stab up tomorrow (which I expect). The 50 day MA at 1108 will keep a cap on this rally. And I still like the risk / reward for staying short from a swing trade perspective.

Also, I stick by the thoughts I stated over a week ago - Taking a Step Back: The Case for Staying Bearish for the Near Term. This is a volatile reaction last week and this week. But even if the trend down is NOT impulsive (i.e. not the start of P3), I believe the weekly chart is telling us we are in a down trend that will last more than just 2 weeks

Fibby Dibby

Like I was saying Friday (And the Hits Just Keep on Coming), alphahorn, Blankfiend, joske and Croozer all called this one correctly. That is that we have been in Minor 2 last week.

There are some nice Fib proportions that point to one more small move up to finish Minor 2. Also the end of today makes Minor 2 about 50% the duration of Minor 1.

Assuming we get an EOD rally, I will probably short the close. NOT ADVICE, just sharing my thoughts.






Update 3:42

Very low volume rally (check SPY) - adding short scales. NOT ADVICE!!