I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, October 23, 2009

Mid-Day Oct 23 Pattern Chart

Here is an update on my pattern chart. Still holding up nicely. Broken support line now resistance (newest red arrow).

The "rally" the last few days has been stair-stepping down the trendlines. I think the wave is done per my last count (EOD Oct 22) and I think we are in the middle of the expected correction. I still expect a move down to ~1050 in the next few days.

After that .... ? Let's re-evaluate when we get there.

The Market Moves Vixenishly

...?

Sorry, I was trying to make a lame pun on the VIX.

Anyways, VIX counts. You know the drill: "May have bottomed, may not have bottomed, but we are close, blah, blah...." ... :)



That's Good Soup

Yesterday I maintained that the count looked corrective (What's All This?) and I still do.



Here is my updated pattern chart. The pattern that I was identifying yesterday (EOD Oct 22 - Pattern Chart) is still holding up.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

US Dollar Update

Here is my US Dollar Index Count:



The move looks nearly complete.

Comparing this to the last US Dollar Index analysis that I performed on Oct 8 in this post A Smattering of Charts, the estimate looks pretty good

Here is the relevant chart from that post

EOD Oct 22 - Pattern Chart

Notes on the chart: Look at patterns for the Blue, Orange, Pink and Red Arrows. Old support line becomes resistance on a retest. Then it breaks down to through the next support and it also becomes resistance.



Addition 5:11 pm

Also the low today was another bounce off the 20 day EMA