May 11 (Just Enough)

:) I was saying yesterday that the main indicator on my 60 minute chart started turning up. Well, this market pushed faking out to the limit. There was just enough of a reversal to issue a bottom signal. However today's action moved the indicator back down.


Like I was saying yesterday, there was nothing about the move for the last 2 weeks (1 week of a down move with a strong reversal) that made any sense to me in the context of a continued uptrend. But I was listening to my indicator and it was telling me that the downtrend was likely over.

Now things seem to be back in line, and my world is starting to make sense again :)

Current thoughts:

May 10

[odd, it didn't publish earlier]

Well, there has been absolutely zero follow through on last weeks move down. Instead we got a very strong reversal. And it was strong enough to cause my 60 minute trend chart to bottom and is now turning back up.

I am highly unsatisfied with the timing of this wave, it is very out of place. If it was a pause it should have only lasted about 2 days. If it was a more meaningful correction it should have lasted a couple of weeks. Right now it is in a very funky 1 week state which is very odd. It is now highly out of proportion with the waves around it.

There are several possibilities but I don't like any of them at this point (I lay out probably my leading one, but frankly it makes me want to puke). So I am mostly in a wait and see mode right now.

May 5 (and a Long Term View Update)

For the past several days (see my last 3 posts) I have been saying that we reached the end of a large wave up and a significant top was forming. I gave a threshold / confirmation level and that level was broken just now (with gusto). On Monday my Trend System said that a significant top was likely forming (not a simple two day pullback) via my 60 minute chart and I have been trading that way for the last few days. A couple more days like this and my Daily chart will say the same thing.

Now, I say significant top. Does that mean 'P3' started on Monday? ... Hardly. Anybody who has been reading my work for the last several months knows that I abandoned that option. Here is the most recent large study of what I think the landscape looks like: First Derivative of the S&P 500, Long Term Study.

I am updating a few of my longer term charts so that you can see what I am currently thinking.

Short term (I am counting this move down as a sharp double corrective)


Last Intermediate wave:


And NO, it wasn't an impulse:


Primary Degree Wave:

May 3

Proceeding with the same thoughts from yesterday

May 2

Current thoughts. My 1370 price target has been met (although my time target has not, that is still bothering me). There is a possibility that this move is only a Minute degree W with a X and Y to follow, but as of this moment I am leaning toward a more significant wave ending here.