I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, May 5, 2011

May 5 (and a Long Term View Update)

For the past several days (see my last 3 posts) I have been saying that we reached the end of a large wave up and a significant top was forming. I gave a threshold / confirmation level and that level was broken just now (with gusto). On Monday my Trend System said that a significant top was likely forming (not a simple two day pullback) via my 60 minute chart and I have been trading that way for the last few days. A couple more days like this and my Daily chart will say the same thing.

Now, I say significant top. Does that mean 'P3' started on Monday? ... Hardly. Anybody who has been reading my work for the last several months knows that I abandoned that option. Here is the most recent large study of what I think the landscape looks like: First Derivative of the S&P 500, Long Term Study.

I am updating a few of my longer term charts so that you can see what I am currently thinking.

Short term (I am counting this move down as a sharp double corrective)

Last Intermediate wave:

And NO, it wasn't an impulse:

Primary Degree Wave:

blog comments powered by Disqus