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Thursday, January 24, 2013

More on Sentiment

I have talked about longer term sentiment measures many times. See my last large post (Update on Long Term Projection (01/19/13)) which links back to several other posts discussing this topic. And I still maintain that we are likely not nearing a major top based on those and several other factors.

But bringing the focus on to this wave: How close are we to being done with the wave since Nov 2012? It has been a violent explosion up, so how close is it to running its course? I think the answer is: not very close at all. See my post yesterday ('Minor' Cycle Chart) for a very unorthodox take on that. But here is a more compelling case: the AAII sentiment survey trends.

See http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/24/bullish-sentiment-jumps-to-a-two-year-high.html for the original post. I have put my interpretation on it in the chart below:

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