I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Saturday, January 26, 2013

A Little More on Sentiment

My last several posts have dealt with sentiment either directly or indirectly. Josh Brown (The Reformed Broker) has a post up that is sort of tangential to sentiment, but it is extremely relevant to the subject of market perception. Please give it a read: Upside Risks

I would definitely add this to the list of reasons why a major top is not at hand and that we are still somewhere in the middle of this cyclical bull market, not at the end of it.

[Edit 1:25 p.m.]

One thing that Josh brings up in the article is a renaissance in American manufacturing, and I think this is an exceptionally good point and I am in total agreement with. In my Caps blog I focus on two major aspects: highlighting good/relevant macroeconomic analysis and scientific/technological advancements. This second category is what I want to discuss right now.

Many of my recent posts have been focused on scientific advancements (click the link above to see what I am talking about). But these advancements are part of a much larger Materials Science revolution. This is truly a very exciting time and I think we will have major technological breakthroughs that will be life/society changing coming in the next decade and American science and manufacturing will be at the forefront of it (and other world economies also, this will by no means be an isolated trend). This will be the biggest driver of the next great secular bull market.

From a timing point of view, I don't think we are there yet, I continue to think that we have one more cyclical bear to finish out the secular bear (for reasons I outline here: Long Term Technicals and Macro and elsewhere). But beyond that I am extremely bullish on the long term prospects of the US economy.
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