I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, September 26, 2011

Sept 26

Just continuing to watch this this bounce. It's still in no-man's land with regard to the counts, and has not triggered anything on my trend system (no divergence signal at the bottom after this down cycle. And 92% of cycle bottoms have divergence. So the odds say sit tight and wait for a lower low). However the strength of this rally at the end of the day seems very out of place. This could be a rare instance where we get a bottom on no divergence. If this thing breaks 118 on this wave, likely a new buy will get triggered (that is a very ugly set up).

So the bottom line is the tape looks ugly, the indicator setups look ugly, the count looks ugly, my 15-minute system is getting faked out like crazy the last 2 days, so I am just sitting tight and waiting for a 60-minute setup to emerge.
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