I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

June 21

Have been calling for a bottom for the past several days and today we finally got proof of a turn. The SPX broke the 1293 barrier and basically closed at it. My 60 minute cycle indicator which bottomed and went into divergence last week like I mentioned before is now firmly on an uptrend.

My expectation is that this is either a Minute or possible Minor X wave up (I have convinced myself that this is likely not a Minuette degree move). I think it will find trouble around 1315-1330. I don't expect it to make a higher high. This should last a couple of weeks followed by a Y wave down which will make new lows below 1258.

Here is my daily chart with the likely pullback area that I am thinking about. Sqwii suggested a very nice simple trend following system with the EMA 3 and SMA 10 that is very useful. Combined with the daily MACD to cut down on the false positives this is quite useful. The trend follower and MACD are both positive at the close, confirming the uptrend call.


Like I was discussing with Sqwii in the comments below, I played around with his simple swing trade system a little. I like the EMA5/SMA15. It has less whipsaws and lets the longer moves run. You trade a little bit on the entries for a slightly less volatile signal. Anyways I like the system for swing trading and think it is worth sharing.

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