I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, June 16, 2011

June 16

Man, this market certainly does keep you on your toes :)

So, here's the deal. This is the last variation I will post on this count. If it goes any lower on this wave then something far more complicated and bearish is happening.

As it stands we got a down move that:
1) Looks remarkably wedge shaped (reversal)
2) A sharp bounce right off the 200 day MA
3) 60 minute cycle indicator still has not made a lower low
4) Nearly every 60 minute indicator I have is in extreme divergence
5) We had a move that rallied all the way into the close (which hasn't happened in weeks)

It's time for the market to show it's cards. It either rallies hard tomorrow and we have a bottom in place that should last a couple of weeks. If it doesn't then next week will be a *very* bearish week.

Assuming that this is a bottom, here is the retrace zone that I like:

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