I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Some More Evidence For the Continuation of P2 --- the BKX

Here is an important bit of analysis on a recent development.

P2 cannot end without Financials helping the bearish case. Financials have been rallying. So is it a blowoff? 2 weeks ago I probably would have said yes. But now, I am not so sure. My evidence here, the Philly Banking Index (BKX)

I wrote a post about the BKX a few weeks ago: The Big BKX Count. I thought things looked to be finishing up.

But this week the BKX put in new highs. On top of that, I think the overall pattern is an ascending triangle. I think Gary at biiwii is calling it right on: Piggies

I have updated my count below.

Since I fully expect financials to lead P3 down, or at the *very least* not be rallying while P3 begins, then I tend to favor this P2 count at the moment: A P2 Alternate Projection

Including close-up count of triangle

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