I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Dec 15

I think that the rally since the mid-Novemeber low is now over. Of course, take this with a grain of salt because I thought the Dec 3 peak was the top of the rally, which it obviously wasn't. My 60-min system issued a sell on Dec 4, which got reversed and a buy was issued on Dec 10, and the system turned back around and is now on a sell again since Dec 13.

But a slightly more compelling setup has occurred for a turning point with the clear bearish reversal candle posted last week (which *must* be confirmed next week), and the close back at / slightly below the 50 DMA.

My take at any rate.

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