I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Sunday, November 18, 2012

VIX: Why I don't think this was 'the top' and also why I think the correction is not over

There are many reasons why I don't think we saw 'the top' with the recent peak. See these posts for why:

Thoughts on the Fiscal Cliff
Update on Long Term Projection (08/17/12)
Long Term Projection, Macro, and an Analysis Retrospective

Let me add another to the list, which I have talked about before (see: Yet another reason why I don't think we saw 'the' top (3)), the lack of a long term VIX divergence. The VIX keeps making new 'recovery lows' as the SPX keeps making new 'recovery highs'. This is completely counter to what we saw at the 2000 peak and the 2007 peak where there was a very pronounced VIX divergence that was several months long.

So count me firmly in the camp that we have not seen the end of this cyclical bull market.

That being said, the VIX has also not spiked up on the current pullback the way it has on all the other pullbacks so far in the current cyclical bull. It seems to me that option traders are getting 'clever' with the market. That they think this pullback is already 'overdone' and they won't panic and are ready, if not eager, to preemptively buy this dip.

As I have been saying this past 2 weeks, I think that is the incorrect position to take. I was of that opinion in October, but since November there is too much technical damage to buy the dip now. I think the evidence (including what is shown below) is clearly on the side of the bears for the near term. And I think option traders are on the whole trying too hard to be 'cute' with the market.

I think we will get a much better entry after some more panic early next year.

My take at any rate.

(Update 11/19 7:30) Wow, this projection is very similar to what I am thinking as well. Read all the way to the end: http://pragcap.com/goldmans-kostin-stocks-will-fall-8-further-before-year-end
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