I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Aug 2

Another monster reversal last week invalidated the short setup that I discussed last Tuesday. A buy signal was issued last Friday which turned around and a sell signal was issued yesterday right after the FOMC announcement. Lots and lots of volatility. Since June, the cycle for each period has been about a week and a half with lots of movement in between. Which means that it has been tough sledding for the 60-minute system which doesn't turn quite that fast and so the market is almost acting like negative feedback for the system.

So is this move up done? I honestly don't know. But the 60-minute system is back on a sell. And this move up still counts like a big overlapping mess. Here is my best guess (which is admittedly pretty bad recently) at a count:

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