I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, June 4, 2012

June 4

With the sell signal on Friday from the Daily System I have been doing a lot of thinking about the current count. Like I said on Friday there are still a lot of reasons why I think this correction is 'suspect' (see Friday's post and comments), but we have a sell signal and I am respecting it.

But the count is ambiguous. We did not make a higher high above the March high in May (although the Dow did), which my system was expecting. I was thinking that the move up in May was part of the correction, but now I think it is a failure (something that E-T was pointing out) with all the evidence considered combined with the Daily sell signal.

Here are my current thoughts on what could be happening. I am not hard over on any count at the moment because I am seeing conflicts on so many charts, but for many reasons that I have elaborated upon previously I still don't think this cyclical bull market is over.

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