I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, August 31, 2009

Quick Update / A P3 Wish Come True?

Hey just a quick update this morning (and no baby yet) :( .

This morning was an interesting turn of events. China is leading the markets down. Like I was saying in my last few posts (A Look At Some of the Asian Markets), they were the beneficiaries of early speculative monetary inflow, and I was positing that they would also be the leaders in speculative outflow. Profit taking is at hand. And from my SSEC chart from my post this weekend (A Massive Chart Dump - P2 Analysis Wrap-Up), I saw a potential bear flag setup that looks like it came to fruition.

So turning back to the US markets, maybe I will get my wish? I was hoping that P2 (the charade) was over and that we would get some definition in the markets. I was saying that things were shaping up for an ending diagonal. Well this morning the diagonal looks broken:

So, the Primary 2 ended count looks much more likely now (and is my new preferred count). As EWP says: "Wave 2's should end on low volume and low volatility" - check. This means that is should have an unmemorable end. Everybody should scratch there heads after the fact and say, was that the top? I think that happened.

Kenny has the correct count (Market Conversation for August 31st, 2009) in my opinion. Here is the same count on my trendlines chart.

And here is my micro count that goes along with it. I was discussing this Friday in this post of mine (So the Diagonal Walks Up to the Two and Says...). I did not like the P2 ended because the subsequent action did not say impulsive down. However with the action today, it put the end of Wave 1 down and Wave 2 in more perspective. I have a recount and I am beginning to like this option a lot more (and not just because I am bearish) :). This is looking more likely to me now.

Update 2:55 --

Here are my current count thoughts. 4 is extending sideways and becoming more complex

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