The Big BKX Count

I had been struggling with the BXK count for some time. And I have *never* found anybody's that I like. But the count was bearish and that was good enough for me. .... for awhile. But that is a very unsatisfying analysis.

However mk and I were discussing this last week (http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/still-looking-bearish.html#comment-36293615), and his theory I believe is right on!! At least it is the one that I like the best and makes the most sense.

Addition 3/3 - 10:30

Change Primary ABC to WXY to better convey the double zigzag (ABC would imply a flat), per the conversation with mk below: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/big-bkx-count.html#comment-37789282

So I took his ideas and ran with them. I did some research based on the behavior of other financials and have arrived at an analytically satisfying count. Here it is:

SPX and RUT ... GO BULLS!!!!

The title was for those in the CIL today :) Good times :)

BTW, just call me binve the bull!!!! RAHH RAHH SIS BOOM BAHH!!!! GO BULLS!!!!

Well the RUT made a new 52 week high today. So it is still in it's P2. But like I was saying last night (Russell, Russell, Russell):

Yes, the Russell could make a new high. And Yes the rest of the indices can still be in P2 if the Russell makes a higher peak.

So lets first see what the Russell looks like:

We have a 5 wave move for the last 5 that looks like it could make a higher high. I think missmalibu's prediction will be right on. One more high before the fall. 60 min indicators are sporting divergence.





Next the SPX:

I know a lot of people are counting Minor 2 as an expanded flat, but I dont' buy it. Unlike the RUT, the rally the last 2 weeks on the SPX does not look impulsive to me. Could I be wrong? You bet!! In fact, if you want to use history as a guide, the fact that I say it doesn't look impulsive means it probably is. But it looks like a correction to me. 60 min here is also sporting divergence.





I think we have one more high tomorrow and then things begin some serious downward movement.

.... I mean: GO BULLS!!!!!

Russell, Russell, Russell

- Does the Russell make a new high?
- Are we still in P2 for the other indices if it does?
- Will the Russell break my heart again? (Don't Pull Your Love Out on Me Russell)

Daneric has some excellent thoughts regarding the Russell move / potential move in his newest post: Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 March [Update 9PM EST]. And I have to say I agree with them completely. Namely:

Yes, the Russell could make a new high. And Yes the rest of the indices can still be in P2 if the Russell makes a higher peak.

But will it make a higher peak? It is hitting the long term down trend line for a second time right now. So it could make a higher high (I almost hope it does. I agree with Daneric, it would make for an excellent non-confirmation), or it might just turn down abruptly from here.

The Russell Mini Futures (TF) isn't giving much of a clue yet.

Sugar Smacks

I Dig 'em



Okay, after the wind up today, I finally have a micro count that I don't love, but at least I buy.

Cocoa Puffs

I'm cuckoo ..... nope just cuckoo, not about Cocoa Puffs in particular.

So far this morning we have had new rally highs on COMPQ, NDX and XLF. So the 1-2 case for the start of Minor 3 is officially gone. But that was more or less abandoned on Friday (I Hate to Say It)

So far however, if this is a Z wave like I think with this chart: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEJXIPu2D-9IzBRD6V1aclf6HELYmUjaXjQftXVqXgihfSNwfRb-80_Z0twOKeyvEpM-b82MChAzW0WIdiPzuxLquvUH-B2CSrHfQMByaTMNpPXoUImVYrjtIF9_IK32isNW5N1ljQoBTj/s1600-h/0binve-001-201.png, we haven't had anything that could stand for a B wave pullback. By that same logic, if you subscribe to the theory the the move the last 2 weeks is a five, and this move the last 2 days is 5 of 5, then there has not yet been any move that could really stand for 2 of 5 of 5.

Odd, odd, odd couple of days.

Addition - 1:15

Still agnostic on the current micro count. However looking at the ES chart is interesting. The last 5 days have seen us trading along 2 key sets of trendlines. There was the large excursion last week that moved us back up the very next day.

But it "acts" like it is retesting resistance.