I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

So far...

As nice and impulsive down as the 5 minute chart looks so far ... it is still a 'blip' on the longer term charts (like the daily chart below).

It could be the start of something, and then it might not be. We are still trading well above major moving averages. There are a couple of support levels below and then the 50 day MA. If this will be a decent correction, we should take those out within the next few days.

However, even though the SPX (and by definition SPY) is still looking like everything 'could' be gumdrops and lollipops for the bulls, the internal mix of the market is not so good. My trend system (which looks at SPX [long term], SPY [short term / intraday], IWM, and the 'X' sector ETFs) issued it's first conflicting signal set (at least one long and one short signal) in months (it has been long or neutral for all the sector ETFs since September). That is another clue that goes into the 'topping process' pile.

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