First: This is a hypothetical count. I am not entirely convinced we are seeing a top yet. However, my trend system issued a slew of short signals today on the 60 minute chart for the sector ETFs. However the SPY is still trading above lateral and MA support. So I am definitely leaning toward a top being in, but I am still waiting for some confirmation.
Second: The SPX is giving confusing action with the lower low today, making the count very ambiguous. But like I have been saying for pretty much the last year, the Nasdaq Composite (not the NDX [Nasdaq 100]) gives much cleaner waveforms, and waveforms that are more 'correct'. By that I mean if you are unsure about the SPX, but the COMPQ is giving you a cleaner count, 9 times out of 10 in the last year the cleaner COMPQ count is right.
And today's lower low on the SPX was not a lower low on the COMPQ. In fact, it looks like a perfectly nice B wave for a zigzag. This makes the second wave on the SPX an expanded flat. You can try to force it into a 4th and 5th wave, but I think that's wrong. Classic B wave expanded flat fakeout undershoot + a strong C wave reversal. That's what I think.
Third: You will notice I am counting this as an A-B-C down from the top. I still hold to the idea that this is a correction within an ongoing bull market, not the start of P3. I think the next wave we will be in is either an Intermediate or Primary Degree X, too early to tell. But whatever it is, I think it will ultimately be another corrective wave.
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9 months ago