I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Rolla Coasta

Oh yeah...... Woo hoo hooo!

So from yesterdays chart (Update) I gave a range for 5 based on the 5th wave termination estimates, and we completed yesterday at the low end of that range.

What do we have today? A very impulsive move down. We already have lower lows than yesterday on the INDU, COMPQ and NDX (as I type this the SPX has not yet). So here are the notes on my chart from below. Pay attention to what I am emphasizing in bold print:

"From 11/19:
1 = 37 pts
3 = 35 pts
Since 3 cannot be shortest 5 must be 35 pts max => 5 ends at 1166 or less.

Also using a 5th wave termination estimate with a factor of 0.618 (most common) => 5 ends at 1166.3. Which is good agreement for bullish scenario.

Using a 5th wave termination estimate with a factor of 0.382 (secondmost common behind 0.618) => 5th wave ends at 1152.7.

We were at the low end of my range yesterday. Today we get a lower low on most indices. We have had a junction of three 5-wave moves of the same degree. The most likely explanation to me is

First 5-wave) C of 4
Second 5-wave) 5 up to complete uptrend
Third 5-wave) 1 down

Addition 11:15 - Longer Term Chart. Lots of broken trend lines

Addition 1:45 - for bubblejeopardy

blog comments powered by Disqus