I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, January 7, 2010

It's a Junior Mint

First, lets just look at some patterns

I see very short term weakness by virtue of the break down of the last couple of days. (Blue lines and arrows). But both the Dow and SPX are still within their larger wedge formations (Red lines). .... However, the same cannot be said for NDX, COMPQ and RUT. I think there is a lot more intermediate term weakness than might appear at first glance.

But stepping back and looking at the count, I see a very strong possibility that this is the top of P2. The same caveat still applies: *WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION* before putting much of your money on it. But I was always the aggressive type. And at least with my short term swing trading portfolio, I have been getting very short the last few days, and a added a little more this morning. (I am waiting for more confirmation with my longer term portfolio, but I do already have some shorts established there too).

Lots of bullish news stories / "all-clear" stories recently are also very comforting to this bear from a sentiment perspective.

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