Big mess taking place right now on all my charts and systems. I haven't commented recently because I was out most of last week and this mess has been largely inscrutable (to me anyways).
But despite the large rally since the beginning of June (right when my Daily Trend system issued a sell, ugg bad timing) the Daily System never got back into buy mode. It almost issued a buy in June, then the selloff reset the buy criteria. And then it almost issues a buy in July, but not quite. So despite the rally since June, my system has not yet transitioned long.
Is it broken? Possibly.
But I am not gravitating to that conclusion. The duration of the cycle from Oct 2011 to June 2012, while exiting due to emergency conditions and not normal conditions, was very close to average. And so there is no reason to expect the down cycle to be abnormally short in duration, which it would have been if the June low had been the low of the correction and the cyclical bull had continued from there.
But that doesn't ring true to me. For this reason and many more on my charts, I think the correction is not done, and do think we will be revisiting the June 2012 low before the correction is done and the cyclical bull continues on to new recovery highs (and likely new all-time highs IMO).
For anybody that cares....
Here is my EW count that fits with what I think is happening and would fit with a much more average downcycle duration on the Daily System timeframe.