I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Gold Projection Update

First things first: My thoughts on gold are very different from most gold investors. For those thoughts refer to my last post on gold (nearly a year ago) here: Gold. I think the inflationary (and especially 'hyperinflationary') thoughts that most gold investors espouse are mostly if not completely wrong. I think the macroeconomic thoughts that most gold investors espouse (especially regarding government 'debt') are mostly if not completely wrong. For my thoughts on these macroeconomic issues, refer to this list.

But for many reasons as outlined in the first link, I continue to be bullish on gold. In fact, I think the the next rise in gold will likely be due in part to the misconceptions that the majority of investors have about gold and macro. So when QE3 comes (which is a huge monetary non-event, is not inflationary, and actually removes income from the non-government sector) and misperceptions and emotion abounds, it will be fuel for the more legitimate reasons that gold continues to be in a bull market.

With that, here is my updated long term count on gold:

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