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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

EOD Count Sept 23

Lets further explore the topics from Mid-Day Count Sept 23:

Looking at the Still in Minute 3 / Completed Minuette 3 and 4 / Working on Minuette 5 chart, I think it was a red herring.

From my notes on my last post:

*However* this price action on the SPX and NDX is not impulsive up. So the price action the last 2 days is either part of a Wave 4 X wave (my preferred) or part of an ending diagonal (which counts as a 3-3-3-3-3). There is no believable way (IMO) to count it as a leading diagonal (which is a 5-3-5-3-5) for the first sub-wave in a Wave 5, and absolutely no believable way to count it as the beginning of a clean impulse up.

So lets look closer at the ending diagonal and see if there actually is one:

I don't think so. And absolutely no completion move on the NDX.

I honestly believe this was an expectation fakeout. It does not say high volume completion to me. Instead, to me, it screams B wave overshoot.

So thats what I think. I think we are still in Minute 4. I think this large move down we are currently in this the "price correction part of the wave". The last 4 days was just sideways churning to burn off overbought, to make this wave be in proportion to the Minute 2 Wave in the overall C wave, and to basically keep the bulls and the bears scratching their heads.

But to be very clear: I DO **NOT** THINK THAT SPIKE UP WAS THE END OF PRIMARY 2. I think we have another Minute Up Wave (wave 5) that will be about 30-40 points big and take us up to 1100 or thereabouts on the SPX.

--- So while this spike up and huge selloff is the type of pattern the bears want to see (and will most definitely be seeing more of in P3), patience is still the name of the game with respect to short positions. ... That was as much for me as it was for anybody else :)
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