I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Jan 15

Here are a few quick thoughts. I still don't have much to say on the markets right now. Like I said on December 18 the time to be bearish was over, and it was now time to be generally bullish.

We had a spike bottom in November on no daily divergence at all. But instead of that being part of a first leg down, it looks like that was all of the correction we were going to get. My 60-minute, Daily and now Weekly systems are all back on a buy signal. On top of that the Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 are back to recovery highs, S&P 500 is a point away, Dow Industrials not far behind, and the Nasdaq is still lagging a bit.

So whatever pullback comes in the near term, my feeling at this point is that it will not be the start of some significant downtrend. I think we have more upside before the next possible Intermediate term pullback (I will discuss my thoughts on that in a different post).

But for right now, here is my rough guess as to what the next several weeks could look like. I really do not think we will get a major pullback, and I do think the SPX wants to challenge 1500.

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