I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Nov 2

My 60-min Trend System issued a cover signal with the move up this morning. See here and here. (These updates are sent out as part of my Trend System Notifications). Not a huge gain with the move down (1.6%) but I will certainly take it and be grateful.

And speaking of being grateful, this is another reason why I am extremely grateful for my trend system in the current environment: One Big Fat F***ing ETF, Deal With It. Stock picking isn't dead, but it is really hard to get an edge that way when the market as a whole flips 'risk on' / 'risk off' like a switch. Finding a way to navigate that chop is key.

Like I was saying yesterday, the setup felt a lot like Sept 22. And today felt a bit like Sept 23 (a real ramp at the end of the day would have cinched it). I am considering a bit more the idea that a similar pattern might be playing out here:

And for anybody that is interested, here is my current EW count:

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