I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Oct 4

Okay, it's time for Crazy Uncle binve's Unpopular Opinion and EW Count Time!

Unpopular opinions:

- Today marked an important low
- Earnings expectations have been hammered the last two months and it won't take much in the 3rd Quarter earnings season (right around the corner) to spark a decent rally
- Bearishness across the board is way overdone, and everyone 'knew' the crash was coming. Watched pot and all that jazz

Unpopular counts:

I still think this is just a big fat corrective mess, not some half-baked impulse down (and the fact that non-EW types are now putting up charts with 12345 down all over the place should be a warning sign).

Here is my relative wave count chart:

Here is what I think it looks like in my larger counting scheme:

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